Bitcoin’s Price and Trump’s Rising Election Win Odds
The price of Bitcoin hit its highest level in over two months earlier today. The surge comes as the odds of former US President Donald Trump winning the upcoming presidential election rose sharply.
Industry experts have noted a connection between Trump’s growing popularity in the polls and the leading crypto’s sudden price movement. Bitcoin has climbed by almost 10% recently, trading at more than $68,200, its highest price since late July.
According to analysts, the increase in Bitcoin’s value correlates with Trump’s widening lead in the decentralized prediction markets. On Oct. 16, Trump’s probability of winning the presidential election was at 60.2%, while current Vice President Kamala Harris trailed behind at 39.8%, as per data from Polymarket.
Many crypto investors view Trump as a more favorable candidate for the digital asset space due to his support for innovation, particularly in blockchain technology. On the other hand, there are concerns that a potential Harris presidency could introduce stricter regulations on the crypto industry.
These differing views on the future of regulation in the crypto space have heightened investor interest in this coin as Trump’s odds improve.
Peter Schiff Labels Bitcoin Rally “Trump Pump”
Economist Peter Schiff, however, dismissed the current Bitcoin rally as a “Trump-inspired pump.” Schiff is a well-known critic of Bitcoin and has consistently favored gold as a safer investment.
Schiff pointed out that while Bitcoin has been rising, gold has also set a new peak, with its price reaching $2,680. He emphasized that Bitcoin’s more volatile movements should not overshadow gold’s steady rise.
The Polymarket prediction platform, which allows users to bet on election outcomes, saw a sharp shift in Trump’s favor in early October. By mid-October, Trump was leading by over 10 points, and Bitcoin’s price had risen by more than 13% since hitting a low of $60,300 on Oct. 10.
Thomas Fahrer, CEO of Apollo, a crypto reviews platform, noted in a recent post on X that BTC’s price rises by $1,000 for every 1% increase in Trump’s probability of winning the election. His observation has fueled speculation that the leading digital asset could continue its uptrend if Trump’s lead remains strong.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index Signals Greed
The rise in Trump’s odds has also affected overall market sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which tracks investor emotions and sentiment in the market, moved from “fear” to “neutral” on Oct. 12, when Trump’s lead hit 10 points.
At the time of writing, the index had reached 73, signaling “greed” among crypto investors. Various factors influence the crypto asset’s price, and its current rally shows how political developments can impact the crypto market.
A Satoshi-era Bitcoin Whale Transfers $630K in BTC
An early Bitcoin whale, inactive for years, has moved $630,000 worth of BTC to the Kraken exchange. The whale, who mined the cryptocurrency just five days after Bitcoin’s genesis block in 2009, has made significant transfers over the last two months.
According to blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence, this latest movement brings the total amount sent to Kraken by the whale to $5.47 million within this timeframe. Nevertheless, Arkham Intelligence revealed that the wallet still holds 1,127 BTC, valued at around $75.2 million.
Notably, this particular whale has been inactive for over a decade until recently. This whale’s activity is not isolated. Earlier in October, another Bitcoin whale moved 10 BTC, valued at $610,000, to Kraken after being dormant for many years.
Growing Whale Activity and Price Surge
This growing trend of dormant whales moving this cryptocurrency suggests that some long-time holders seize the opportunity to cash out as the coin’s price rises. Recently, Arkham Intelligence tracked another whale in September, who mined BTC two months after the blockchain’s inception.
The whale, dormant for 15 years, transferred $16 million worth of BTC to Kraken. This series of transfers has drawn attention as they coincide with Bitcoin’s latest price surge.
BTC’s price has gained 7.45% over the past week. The cryptocurrency is now trading above $67,000, a level not seen in recent months.
